۱۳۸۹ بهمن ۹, شنبه

?When not to respect internal matters

When world community should start intervening rather than staying away and "respecting" internal matters of a dictatorship country?

We definitely don't want to force political freedom into countries like Mongolia where there is not much demand for it, but we also don't want to do nothing when people of a country seriously want it, so what should be the criteria for when and where to intervene?

This question translates to the old economics question of how to distinguish demand from wish. A wish is what one likes to have but not ready to pay its price, demand on other hand is when one steps into the market ready to pay the price of what he wants.

There is a Persian proverb saying "without crying, the baby won't get any milk. The cry here is the price that the baby should pay to get the milk. So should we wait for a nation to cry for freedom before we conclude that they really demand and not just wish the freedom and decide that it is time to intervene in internal matters of these countries by supporting freedom? Well, the answer is by the time that we see a real cry, it is probably already too late for any intervention and people have already taken the matters into their own hand and they don't need much support from the world other than not backing the dictators.

I believe realization of cry for freedom is sufficient but not necessary condition to signal that the demand for freedom is serious and deserve international support. Many dictators are capable of making cry illegal and impossible for their nation for decades if not forever. Good news is when there is not much observation to estimate the demand for something directly, we can look at the strength of forces that a government wields to prevent realization of demand and use them as surrogates to indirectly estimate the demand. Some surrogate variables can be the budget allocated to secret police as a percentage of GDP, the existence and significance of the role plainclothes play, the number of executions and imprisonment, and in summary the existence of a police state.

If these surrogate variables are significant, then the world should know that there is a latent cry in the society for freedom and start pushing for freedom even without seeing any obvious sign of protest. It may be late to push for freedom for Tunisia or Egypt, but it is not late to do it for many countries in the Middle East

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کارشناسی را مهندسی‌ خوانده‌ام و بعد از آن اقتصاد و فایننس را در ایران و سپس در آمریکا آموخته ام. در ایران هم برای دولت کار کرده ام، هم در بخش خصوصی و هم در بورس. در آمریکا در حین دانشجویی کارهایی‌ مانند تحقیق، تدریس، کمک و مشاوره به دانشجویان اقلیت،و مشاوره به شرکت هارا تجربه کرده ام.